New residents and how they affect the housing market still dominate public attention, but they take backseat to the organic demand from sidelined buyers who are already here.  

While we don’t precisely know everything about what pushed them to the sidelines, there’s some pretty good data on their estimated numbers and demographics. That help comes from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). After evaluating the performance of the local market across 10 separate metrics, NAR’s researchers came up with a local heads up of what to expect if mortgage rates behave as predicted. 

Mortgage rates are the key because the decision to buy a house is price sensitive and mortgage rates are a deciding factor on how much a buyer can spend without exceeding his or her budget. Although rates have seesawed during the past few weeks, they’re expected to stabilize and move lower. 

So, who are these locals that are in the pent-up organic demand class? 

After delving into the demographic, NAR’s researchers say most are older millennials who are 35 to 44 years old. But that’s on the national level. Things here in NE TN and SW VA are a little different.  

The 5,601 potential returning buyers who will benefit most in the four-county Kingsport-Bristol metro area (Hawkins and Sullivan counties in NE TN and Scott and Washington in SW VA) are: 

• 1,340 who are 65-74 years old. 
•  1,033 who are 55-65 years old. 
• 954 who are 74 years-old and older. 
• 817 who are 45-54 age group. 
• 816 who are 35-44 age group. 
• 465 who are 25-34 age group. 
• 76 who are 20s. 

Here’s what else researchers say about them: 

• 4,369 are homeowners. 
• 1,232 are renters. 
• 5,309 are White. 
• 52 are Black. 
• 182 are Hispanics. 

Switching over to the three-county Johnson City metro area (Carter, Washington, and Unicoi counties) here’s what the researchers say: 

Based on 4,807 households returning buyers by age group should be: 

• 1,082 ages 35-44.  
• 873 ages.  
• 671 ages 45-54. 
• 665 ages 25-34. 
• 547 ages 75 and up. 
• 488 ages 65-74. 
• 481 early 20s. 

According to the research, 3,749 of the projected returning buyers are homeowners and 1,058 are renters. 

The estimated demographics are: 

• 4,594 White. 
• 22 Asian. 
• 14 Hispanic. 

Since the research was cutoff at the metro level it doesn’t include information about the returning buyers in Greene and Johnson counties.  

Of course, outlooks are guidance for what could happen, not gospel to what will happen, but NAR’s research has a track record of being pretty reliable if a little on the conservative side. Coupled with the flow of new residents, NAR’s outlook sets the stage for an increase in demand that will tax the region’s inventory recovery. 

As to what happens next – all eyes are on what the Federal Reserve does. 

The data is based on the number of households with occupants who will be able to buy the median priced home if rates fall to 6.5%. NAR’s calculations are based on the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey PUMS data.