Are foreclosures really on the rise? 

You bet they are, but not here in the Tri-Cities region.  

The wave of new filings is in Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Houston, and Atlanta. California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois were the top states for filings.  

Locally, new foreclosure filings are down 51% from last year. And of the almost 90,000 local mortgaged properties, about 3% are delinquent. That’s half of what it was this time last year. 

The current foreclosure rate for the region’s two metro areas is 0.2%. This historical norm is about 0.5%. 

Realtor.com’s senior economist George Ratiu is spot on with his assessment of the national situation. The foreclosure uptick “also indicates that the economic, especially employment recovery, is not complete. He said the economy has added jobs, “but we’re still short of a pre-pandemic level.”  

That fits the local conditions like a glove. Current Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show that the Johnson City metro area’s jobs market has recovered to its pre-pandemic level and added almost 1,000 new jobs. Kingsport-Bristol is still down a little over 3,000 jobs, so the region hasn’t recovered yet.  

The headlines about new foreclosure filings are another example of why local market information is more important than what’s happening nationwide. The national stories that get the most attention are about major metro market conditions that may or may not accurately reflect local conditions. In this case, they do not.  

It’s likely that the local delinquency and foreclosure situation will increase later this year. It’s also likely that it won’t reach normal levels before 2023 given current conditions.