It’s been a slow slog that isn’t over yet, but the Tri-Cities regional housing market has arguably turned the corner on inventory restoration. Currently, the region has a little over three months of inventory. Some of the price tiers in submarkets have a much better stock. For instance, the Twin Cities has 7.5 months of inventory in the $300K-to $399K price range. That’s a month and a half better than what’s considered balance market conditions. 

Inventory has slowly increased for the last half year and the outlook for the 2025 prime home buying and selling season is looking better.   

Typically, there’s isn’t an inventory surge until the first months of the new year, but the last quarter of this year holds promise for buyers and sellers who want to get ahead of the game. That means keeping a close watch on inventory is critical. It’s a must watch metric because it’s the housing market’s supply and demand equilibrium. 

The short-term outlook for the rest of this year is a continuation of the slow buildup. Currently, there’s a little over 2,000 active inventory listings. Getting back to a pre-pandemic level would require about 1,400 more listings. 

The long-term outlook is brighter because mortgage rates have stabilized, and the reality that they will not drop to the basement levels is taking hold. The historical mortgage rate average is 7.5% and the conservative outlook for early next year is 6 to 6.5%.   

The long-term inventory outlook is also looking stronger. During a speech to the Kingsport Kiwanis Club, John Rose announced a rebranding of NETTNHUB under the name of the Bridge. His update on what the regional group is working on included, “assisting developers in locating hotels, restaurants and over 1,000 housing units.”  

One thousand new housing units would just about put the region at a pre-pandemic level, but those properties may take anywhere from a year to several years to become a reality. They will dovetail with the current new home production and slow rebuilding of the existing housing inventory. The key to when the region will reach an overall pre-pandemic inventory level is the existing housing that is currently in a locked status. Some studies suggest it would take a mortgage rate of 5% to 5.5% to make a quick break on the lock super low rates have on owners of properties with super low mortgage rates. 

After the election, for better or worse, there will be less uncertainty which will lift some of the consumer constraints about major purchases. Historically, home sales increased after the presidential election. 

Meanwhile, there are buyers and sellers who won’t wait for all the outlook to play out in the 2025 prime buying and selling season. Some need to make the move now for varied reasons. Others are intent on getting the best deal they can and that’s often in the latter part of the year. 

That makes partnering with a professional Realtor® critical. They can track inventory by price ranges and the various submarkets in the region. More than any other time of the year, the last-quarter housing market is subject to even more hyper local conditions, and it takes a pro who with his or her finger on the pulse of the market to identify the deals that best fit the needs of their clients.