MARKET PULSE – Inventory continues snail’s pace improvements

Don Fenley 

There were 1,440 active listings in the Tri-Cities region in April. That’s a 7% improvement over April 2023 and 47% better than it was when invitatory bottomed out in 2021.

While a 7% improvement was welcomed, the local inventory picture lags what’s happening on the national scale. April listing in Realtor.com were up 30%.

While inventory has returned to pre-pandemic levels in some markets, the local situation is one of painfully slow improvement as buyers snap up the prize new listings. That’s especially true of the sales dynamic in $250K to $299K price ranges.

Another way to look at the situation is months of inventory. The number expresses how long it would take to sell everything on the market at the current month’s sales pace. In April, the regional number was 2.2 months. Balanced market conditions are four months on the bottom end. Six months inventory is the baseline.

Balanced conditions exist when the market favors neither buyers nor sellers. The last time the region monitored by the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors had balanced market conditions was the Nov. 2019 pre-pandemic level at 4.9 months of inventory. And it was already well on its way toward a strong seller’s market.

According to housing analyst Lance Lambert, “Generally speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e., active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 21 months. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic levels have experienced stronger home price growth over the past 21 months.”

That’s certainly the situation in the counties monitored by the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR). The lowest April median home sales price in the last 28 months was $220,000 in 2022. It was $260,500 last month.

Like all things real estate, the picture changes when months of inventory are segmented by things like price ranges. Conditions look better for buyers who are not in the workforce or affordable homes market. The segmentation-inventory situation also paints a vivid picture of the overall price status for home sales across the region and in its primary city locations.

At mid-month, the Greeneville region was on the bottom rungs of balanced conditions in the $200K-$299K and $300K-$399K price ranges. That’s also the most sought-after price range across the region.

The Johnson City and Kingsport regions saw the same inventory situation if the $400K-$499K and $500K-$599K price ranges.

The Twin Cities continued as the market with the least balanced conditions in price ranges below $600K.

Regionally, the market had balanced conditions in the $400K-$499K and up price ranges. That price range accounted for 9.4% of the early April closings.

NETAR is the voice for real estate in Northeast Tennessee. It is the largest trade association in the Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia region, representing over 1,800+ members and 100+ business partners involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. Weekly market reports and information for both consumers and members are available on the NETAR website at https://netar.us