There’s a slow, but broad shift in 2024 housing market outlooks and it falls in line with the Tri-Cities regional on-the-ground fundamentals.

Realtor.com’s economic division headlined a report that “The Housing Market Just Showed a Sudden, Miraculous Return to Normal.” Instead of falling prices, it projects increases in Tennessee metro areas. Knoxville is expected to increase by 7.2%. Chattanooga’s outlook is for a 2% increase. Memphis and Nashville prices declines are expected. Unfortunately, the outlook wasn’t inclusive. But since the Tri-Cities’ market has performed on par or better than the rest of East Tennessee and the local fundamentals are stable, prices should increase.

Last year’s local annual median price appreciation was 10.7%. Across East Tennessee, markets increases were in the single digits. It was 5.9% in Knoxville, 4.8% in the Morristown area, 3.6% in Chattanooga and 3.6% in the Cleveland market.

 And Lance Lambert, one of the nation’s foremost data journalists, is tracking multiple outlook updates. He reports Zillow’s Tri-Cities area outlook now calls for a 6.1% price increase in the Kingsport-Bristol metro area and 6.2% in the Johnson City metro area.

Currently, national price outlooks range from increases of 5.5% by Home LLC to 1.4% by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

There are several fundamental reasons for continued price increases in the Tri-Cities region.

• ATTOM Data Solutions’ current risk analysis rates the region’s top county markets among those nationwide with the least risk of a downturn.
• National Association of Realtors researchers think improved mortgage rates that average in the 6% to 6.5% range will nudge about 10,000 local buyers back to the market.
• Although the flow of new residents appears to be softening, the region remains a popular spot for new residents making lifestyle decisions and looking for reasonably priced housing.
• While local inventory is increasing, the pace is very slow and with the expected increase in local organic demand and continued flow of new residents, there will be more demand and inventory. That means upward pressure on prices.

The thing to remember is that sales and price outlooks – no matter how good or reliable the resource – are guidance, not a guarantee. But with that said, there’s an optimism on both the national, regional, and local level that the 2024 market will be an improvement.