In a couple of weeks, we’ll have the first numbers from this year’s annual existing home sales and prices. Expect advice, analysis, outlooks, and forecasts to surge. But remember, look at forecasts and outlooks as guidance, not gospel.   

For those wanting a jump on the year-end numbers look no further than November’s Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors®’ (NETAR) Home Sales Report. The year-to-date totals are a good indicator of what the annual numbers will look like since the last month of the year rarely moves annual totals.  

The end of 2023 also begs two eternal real estate questions: 

Is it a good time or buy?  

Is it a good time to sell? 

Despite what you may hear or read, the answer to both is “yes.” 

The reality is it’s always a good time if either fits the needs of the client.  

Another reality to those plowing through social media and hot headlines is: “don’t try to time the market because the only market you’re guaranteed is what you now have.” 

The best advice from trusted experts is “know your source before you rely on an article or graphic.” And don’t put too much faith in one report. In this era of dueling data develop the discipline of using multiple resources, especially those that cite their data sources.  

High-level market reports and analysis from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and Realtor.com are suggestions for national-level information. Tennessee Realtors® in the next stop in localizing housing data to state-level data. The best and final resource for local market conditions is NETAR’s monthly and weekly reports. Although some of them fly under the public and media radar, they’re important because they are part of the baseline for many state and national reports. The Home Sales Report, Commercial Sales Report, Pending Sales monthly reports plus the weekly Market Pulse are available on NETAR’s website at www.netar.us and on social media. No subscriptions or firewalls. It’s part of the Association’s franchise as the voice of real estate in NE TN and SW VA.  

Here’s a rundown of some of November’s primary year-to-date data gleaned from NETAR’s reports.  

HOME SALES 

So far this year sales are running 14% behind the first 11 months of last year. They are slightly ahead of where there during the first 11 months of 2018.  

PRICES 

The median sales price is 10.7% higher than it was during the first 11 months of last year. And despite what may have heard about the lack of affordable housing, one-in-three existing homes sold so far this year have been in the $140K to $250K price range. Affordable housing is available, there’s just not enough of it. 

INVENTORY  

So far this year, the number of homes on the market is down 2.6% from last year. The region had two months of inventory in November. Four to six months inventory marks balanced conditions, which eases the upward pressure on prices. Overall inventory is slowly increasing. Some community and submarkets have enough for a toehold on balanced conditions in specific price ranges.  

DEMAND 

Demand for homes is strong despite higher mortgage rates and the lack of inventory. That’s coming from organic pent-up demand and the influx of new residents. But demand is softening.

How much time a property is on the market before selling is one of those flags. The current year-to-date number is 73 days. Last year it was 64 days. And sellers reduced their initial listing price on a third of the properties that closed last month.  

PENDING SALES 

NETAR’s early pending sales report for last month was up 8%. Accepted contracts typically close in a month to six weeks. That aligns with the closings expected trend for the last month of a transitioning market. 

BOTTOM LINE 

The local housing market continues moving toward pre-pandemic levels. The labor economy, consumer spending, and mortgage rates will affect what the market does in 2024. A pragmatic outlook is one of the major headwinds for both the economy and housing is the uncertainty of geopolitical events. These conditions mean now – more than ever – mark a time when partnering with a real estate professional is a smart decision.