There is a chance that the Spring prime home buying and selling season will get an early start this year after the doldrums that consumed the last half of 2024. A growing number of homeowners who have been on the sidelines are realizing that while home prices are still increasing, the growth rate won’t be at the double-digit pace seen in past years.

Hopes that mortgage rates would be in the 5 to 5.5% range have faded. The inventory picture looks better, and more inventory means more home sales. Currently, it’s the best we’ve seen since 2020. In fact, in mid-December inventory in the region’s four major areas was at or on the verge of balanced conditions in the $300K-$399,999 sweet-spot price range.

The Bristol TN/VA area had four months or more inventory in the price tiers of $200K to $999,999K. So did the Greeneville area. Inventory was tighter in the Johnson City and Kingsport areas, especially in the $100K-$299,999K price ranges.

Realtor.com’s team is reporting that “2025 is expected to be the most buyer-friendly market since 2016” Their outlook adds that inventory of homes for sale will be at the highest since just before the pandemic.

There will be 4.1 months’ worth of homes for sale on the market in 2025, they report, explaining that “anything under 4 months is typically considered a seller’s market, while a supply of 4 to 6 months is typically considered a balanced market.” (Anything above 6 months’ worth is a buyer’s market, which isn’t in the cards any time soon,)” the report concluded.

Much of the local inventory situation fits roughly into that assessment.

On the demand side, it remains high. There are signs that the number of new residents won’t be as robust as it has been in years past, but combined with the organic pent-up demand that won’t soften the demand dynamic much.

Of course, first of the year outlooks are tricky. The bottom can fall out for some things that look promising in December can by the end of the first quarter. Still putting inventory – especially in the various price tiers – at the top of the watch list is a good idea.