The Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Spring Emerging Markets Index was a shocker in NE TN and SW VA. The Johnson City metro area, which has dominated Tennessee and most U.S. markets in previous Indices top rankings, didn’t make the list.

 Kingsport-Bristol has ascended to 9^th place ranking in the nation primarily due to a change in the index’s methodology.

Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors (NETAR) President Michelle Davis said the change weights the population of the market more than the dynamics of the housing economy.

Previous indices reviewed the 300 most popular markets in the nation while the Spring Index was revised to the 200 largest metro areas. Although the Tri-Cities region is one marketplace and used to be designated as a single Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), the Office of Management and Budget and the Census Bureau carved it into two MSAs a little over two decades ago. Since then, the Johnson City metro has dropped out of many studies reports that are based on the metro population.

Kingsport-Bristol is currently the 167th largest MSA in the nation, with 313,025 residents. The Johnson City MSA is 221^st in the nation, with 213,128 residents. If combined, the Tri-Cities market would be the 109^th largest MSA in the nation.

Davis said the index’s new methodology will probably cause some marketing confusion but doesn’t reflect the viability or market stability of the region. “The Johnson City metro market remains one of the viability markets in the region and Tennessee.”

During the first quarter of this year, the median sales price of a home in the Johnson City metro area was $289,000, up 12.7% from last year. There were 519 sales, down 2.8% from last year as the metro area’s and region’s market continued receding to a pre-pandemic level.

During the same period, the median price in Kingsport-Bristol was $241,750, up 2.9% from last year. There were 730 sales up 8.8% from last year.

Combined the two local metro areas, and their sister counties that are not included in the MSA counts, continue to be one of the most affordable and stable housing markets in the state, Davis said.

The Spring WSJ/Realtor.com Housing Market Ranking looked at the 200 largest metro areas in the country and ranked them based on a variety of economic and lifestyle factors, including housing supply, housing demand, property taxes, unemployment, and proximity to popular retail and restaurant chains such as Starbucks, Costco, and Home Depot.  

For the first time, the ranking also looked at the percentage of homes in each market at risk of being affected by extreme heat, wind, air quality, flood, and wildfire over the next 30 years.

Each market is ranked on a scale of 0 to 100 according to the category indicators, and the overall index is based on the weighted sum of these rankings. 

The real-estate market category indicators are real estate demand (15%), based on average pageviews per property; real estate supply (15%), based on median days on the market for real estate listings; median listing price trend (10%), based on annual price growth over the quarter; property taxes (10%) and climate risk to properties (10%). 

The economic and quality of life category indicators are unemployment (5%); wages (5%); regional price parities (5%); share of foreign-born (5%); small businesses (5%); amenities (10%), measured as the average number of stores per specific “everyday splurge” category (coffee, upscale/specialty grocery, home improvement, fitness) per capita in an area, and commute time (5%).