A leading magazine that touts its content as insider information has a headline that proclaims the housing market is frozen. The reporter is also making the media rounds, explaining why the market is frozen. It’s pretty good info about states and major metro markets, but for consumers looking for help on the local market the story is bogus. 

The local market is not frozen. Prices have not declined. And none of the local data points to those situations. In fact, the local market is ranked by ATTOM, a leading real estate data firm, as the least vulnerable in the nation for a market downtown. That ranking results from a risk analysis of almost 600 county markets.  

Yes, sales have been retreating as the market slowly stabilizes from the unsustainable go-go post-pandemic years. But there’s more stable market examples than frozen market signs. 

Prices are another example. In May they were 5.7% higher than in May last year. The five-month trend is just south of 7% better than last year. And the outlook for June’s market is more of the same.  Pending sales – one of the market’s few forward-looking data points – are basically flat when compared to the previous month and last year. But flat pending sales are not a declining market flag. 

A lot of what prices do in the third and fourth quarters depend on mortgage rates – they are currently declining, but at a snail’s pace. Here’s how sellers are adapting to changes in the local market. An increasing number of sellers are reducing their initial listing price.  

May’s average price reduction was $17,962, up from $15,533 this time last year. It accounted for 62% of May’s homes sales.  

While the trend is not as strong as what is being reported in some metro markets, it’s a clear sign seller are becoming more flexible and willing to negotiate in response to market rebalancing. 

Step back from the local scene and the picture gets even more fuzzy if you depend on national data. Here’s some of the good, the bad and the ugly. 

• The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) outlook is that US prices will climb 1.7% by year’s end.   
• CoreLogic thinks prices will be up by 3.7%. 
• Moody’s Analytics expects prices to decline by 4.2%. 
• Zillow thinks prices will increase by 0.5%. 

Now, compare that with the mortgage rate outlook that’s critical to consumer sentiment. 

NAR’s chief economists Lawrence Yun says if inflation is under control mortgage rates can go down, but the nation’s huge debt will continue to keep rates high. He thinks it can go down to 6% with Federal Reserve cuts and calmer inflation. 

Zillow expects rates to end the year in the mid-6% range barring unforeseen economic shocks. 

Fannie May’s May Economic and Housing Outlook forecasts rates to end the year at 6.1%. 

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts the 30-year fixed rate to average 6.7% in the third quarter and end the year at 6.6%. 

 What this shows is that while some national data helps provide context, the only thing that really matters is what the local market is doing. And remember, real estate is hyper local.  

The bottom line is the local market is doing better than what much of the national media is reporting. That’s a clear message to local buyers and sellers: Don’t depend too much on what broadcast news readers, headline writers, or so-called housing market influencers are saying. 

Savvy buyers and sellers will double down on local real estate market information during the coming months. It’s going to be increasingly important during the last half of this year. Look for NETAR’s mid-year update and outlook in the coming weeks too for local data and market context.