So far this year, Kingsport-Bristol retail vacancy held at 4.0%, up from 2.4% a year earlier but still below the national rate. Rents kept rising 2.5%, and a surge in sales volume signals investors are still buying into the market.

Negative absorption, but scarcity holds the floor

An analysis by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found local retail demand as “weaker than nationwide,” and the absorption numbers show it. The metro area gave back 357,658 square feet over the trailing 12 months. Vacancy rose 160 basis points. But at 4.0% the market is still tight, rent growth held at 2.5%, and there is little new construction. This is a tight market loosening at the edges, not one in trouble.

Price-per-foot jump is a mix shift, not a boom

Transaction sale price rose from $84 to $269 per square foot year-over-year, and sales volume more than doubled to $39.46M. But that’s what sold, not a market-wide revaluation. A small number of higher-quality properties moved the average dramatically. It’s the mirror image of the kind of mix-driven swing that can also push the number down. The volume jump does say capital is actively buying local retail. That’s a real signal but don’t read the per-foot figure as the whole market repricing upward 220%.

Metric	Q1 2026	Q1 2025
Vacancy rate	4.0%	2.4%
Net absorption (SF, quarter)	-64,747	30,479
Net absorption (SF, 12 mo.)	-357,658	-56,150
Market rent/SF	$14	$14
12-mo. rent growth	2.5%	4.4%
Inventory (SF)	21,734,585	21,749,058
Market cap rate	7.9%	7.8%
Total sales volume	$39.46M	$15.99M
Transaction sale price/SF	$269	$84

A different story than the national headlines

National retail coverage in early 2026 describes a supply-starved market giving back space seasonally: Cushman & Wakefield reported the U.S. handed back 4.6 million square feet in Q1 — a third straight first-quarter pullback — nudging national vacancy to 5.9%, still well below its historical norm, with record-low construction keeping rents rising. Kingsport-Bristol tracks that national pattern closely: negative absorption, tight-but-rising vacancy, and rent growth resting on scarcity. At 4.0% the metro still sits below the 5.9% national figure.

What it means for investors, businesses and consumers

For investors, the doubled sales volume and firm 7.9% cap rate say capital still likes local retail, but the heavy negative absorption is the cautionary counterweight.

 For businesses, especially retailers and restaurants, 4.0% vacancy is looser than a year ago but still tight enough that prime space stays scarce and rents keep climbing.

 For consumers, slightly higher vacancy means modestly more retail options may open up, though limited new construction caps how much new shopping and dining arrives.

Methodology: This report is a combination of local, AI, and NAR’s Commercial Real Estate Report analysis. Data is drawn from NAR’s Commercial Real Estate Report, which is based on NAR analysis of U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and CoStar data. National benchmarks reflect Q1 2026 reporting from CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield; providers differ on national vacancy definitions, so comparisons are directional. Small-market figures can move sharply on individual transactions.