Both national and local indicators are finally pointing to 2026 delivering a turnaround housing market. 

At the national level, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), offered one of the most upbeat forecasts in recent memory. At NAR NXT in Houston, Yun projected a 14% jump in existing home sales in 2026. New-home sales are also slated to rise to another 5%. And unlike past cycles where demand surges came with turbulence, Yun emphasized that prices are in no danger of declining. Instead, NAR expects a 4% nationwide price gain, supported by job growth and the long-standing structural shortage of homes. 

Mortgage rates – one of the biggest headwinds of the past two years – are also expected to ease. Yun projects average rates drifting toward 6% in 2026, down from roughly 6.7% this year. The improvement won’t be dramatic, he warned, but even modest declines historically unlock sidelined demand. 

While the national conversation is just beginning to shift toward optimism, the Tri-Cities market has already started turning the corner.  

The TCI annualized sales tracker shows the region has moved from the correction phase into growth mode. Mid-Nov. annualized sales have increased for the fourth straight month, with the mid-tier price bands driving the rebound. Supply remains tight, but there’s enough inventory on the market to support stabilization and incremental expansion. 

Local prices are still increasing and reinforcing the uptrend. The first 10 months of this year show a 5.7% price increase, outpacing last year’s full-year appreciation. For perspective: 

• During the 2009–2012 recovery lull, the local median price fell nearly 10% – from $130,000 to $118,240. 
• What followed was a remarkable 12-year climb. Prices more than doubled, rising from $125,000 to $268,750 by 2024. 
• The 2020–2022 period delivered rapid double-digit gains. 
• Even as the market normalized in 2024, prices still posted a 4.9% increase. 

Sales are showing a similar long-arc pattern. Annual transactions increased every year from 2012 through 2022, and again in 2023. Last year barely kept the streak alive with a 0.1% increase, but year-to-date 2025 performance is already stronger. It’s up 0.9% compared to the first 10 months of last year. 

Taken together, the region has quietly set the foundation for a stronger 2025 and a more substantial 2026. 

One key indicator to watch is loan origination activity. 

Nationally, mortgage applications have been improving for several months. Locally, the trend is more mixed: 

• Local purchase loan originations are increasing – but remain below where they were last year. 
• Refinances are outpacing purchases, a sign that existing owners are responding faster than prospective buyers. 
• The gap is expected to close as updated data is released, especially if rates ease into the 6% range. 

The broader implication is that pent-up demand is still there, but local buyers are responding more cautiously than the national average. Historically, once affordability improves even modestly, the Tri-Cities market reacts quickly. 

The wildcard for housing is jobs and wages. That will become even more significant next year. Every outlook for 2026 hinges on the labor market, and for the Tri-Cities, that story is complicated. 

The region has seen both job gains and job losses this year. Here are just two recent examples: 

• Eastman’s 7% workforce reduction remains a major unknown because the company hasn’t detailed how many local positions will be affected. 
• Renova Health is laying off 80 employees, adding to the instability in healthcare staffing. 
• Wages are softening, mirroring national trends as the labor market cools.

A softer labor market doesn’t necessarily derail housing activity, but it can slow the pace of household formation, reduce move-up activity, and temper price pressure. For now, the job-market headwinds appear manageable, but they remain a top-tier risk factor. 

While national forecasts are calling for a meaningful surge in 2026 local conditions suggest the region may already be experiencing the early chapters of that rebound. If job losses remain contained and wage softening is modest, housing looks positioned for another steady, upward step. 

The next 18 months won’t look like the frenzied surges of the post-pandemic era. But they may very well mark the beginning of the next growth cycle. It’s a cycle the Tri-Cities appears uniquely positioned to enter ahead of the curve.