Much of the focus on who’s buying homes is on newcomers. New Census population estimates affirm that the Tri-Cities is still getting a steady stream of them, but there’re not as many as there were in years past. The median age of our new residents has also changed. Back in 2020, it was 42. That latest count says that has increased to 52.  

Although is sounds like a contradiction, the focus on newcomers could be too much attention on the housing market’s low-hanging fruit. That’s a consideration because there’s credible research by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) that there’s a little over 10,000 locals who are in the local pent-up demand category. The study’s results are a little dated, but since the same conditions that put those locals on the sidelines haven’t changed, the count is still valid. They may be a year older, but many are still there, still waiting and watching the market. 

According to NAR’s Research Department, there’re an estimated 10,404 locals who are on the home buying sidelines. Some are waiting for better mortgage rates but are beginning to realize that rates are not likely to fall much in the near-term. Others want to see prices fall. That too doesn’t seem like a probability either. And there is a group who are ready and willing, but the product they want is not out there in numbers great enough to nudge them off the sideline. 

So who are these locals in our bulging pent-up demand class?  

Here’s NAR’s estimate. 

Johnson City Metro Area 

This is the region attracting most newcomers; however, it’s second to the Kingsport-Bristol metro area in pent-up demand. 

Most of the returning buyers (3,749) are owners. Another 1,058 are renters. 

Here’s how they break down by age groups. 

• 1,082 are 35-44. 
• 873 are 55-64. 
• 671 are 45-54. 
• 665 are 25-34. 
• 547 are 75 and older. 
• 488 are 65-74. 
• 481 are in their early 20s. 

Kingsport-Bristol Metro area 

Although this area lags the Johnson City metro’s growth, it has more local pent-up demand, according to NAR’s research. 

There’s also quite a bit of demographic variance between the two metro areas.  

Owners account for 4,369 potential Kingsport-Bristol returning buyers. The renter total is 1,232. 

Here’s NAR’s estimate of them by age groups. 

• 1,340 are 65-74. 
• 1,033 are 55-64. 
• 954 are 75 and older. 
• 817 are 45-54. 
• 816 are 35-44. 
• -465 are 24-34. 
• 176 are in their early 20s. 

Of course, NAR’s numbers – like the Census population growth projections – are estimates, so there’s some give and take on the final numbers, but combined they point to a continued challenge to meet the housing demands in both the near and mid-term. Just don’t let the media and social media’s preoccupation with population growth pay too much attention to the who, what, and where of overall housing demand. NAR’s reality check and the continued demand data that the market keeps churning out point to a local, sizeable pent-up demand sector.