By AMY MITCHELL  

The Tri-Cities is experiencing a demographic shift that will reshape not only its health and senior care systems but also the housing market. And it’s going to increase.  

The just released current certified population numbers from the state data center lists a population growth of 4% from the 2020 census. All but two of the local communities have grown. The exceptions are Erwin (-1.1%) and Elizabethton (-1.3%). Jonesborough has seen the highest growth (19.3%) followed by Johnson City (5.5%). Church Hill (4.3%) and Greeneville (4.3%) round out the locals with a growth rate higher than the regional average. 

The region is already older than the U.S. where the median age is 38.7. It’s 44.7 here. Demographic studies show the aging wave is cresting. Census counts say there were 53,504 locals 75 and older, and their ranks are growing.  

Currently, an average of 17 locals turn 70 every day. Between now and 2030, the region’s population of older adults, especially those 75+ and 85+, will increase faster than almost any other age group.  

County-by-County Aging Curve (2025–2030)  

State and regional projections show that by 2030, the 75+ population will grow between 28% and 32% in most counties, with the 85+ segment climbing even faster. Here’s a county-by-county breakdown with the percentage increase by 2030 of residents 75+ followed by the percentage increase of those 85 and older.  

• Washington  

+31%  

+49%  

  

• Sullivan  

+29%  

+47%  

  

• Carter  

+31%  

+50%  

  

• Greene  

+31%  

+48%  

  

• Hawkins  

+30%  

+47%  

  

• Unicoi  

+32%  

+50%  

  

• Johnson  

+31%  

+49%  

  

Washington and Sullivan counties will add the most seniors in raw numbers, making them the centers of new facility growth.  

Carter, Greene, and Unicoi will see the most per-capita pressure.  

Hancock and Johnson counties face the steepest access challenge: fewer facilities today, but rapid growth in the oldest age group.  

The aging curve will likely change the housing market in several ways.  As older adults move into assisted living or downsize, more 3- to 4-bedroom homes will come to market. This could ease inventory pressure in Washington and Sullivan counties. Move-up buyers will benefit most.  

Fiercer Competition for Small, Low-Maintenance Homes  

Many seniors will choose to downsize into condos, townhomes, or one-level homes before moving into assisted living. That creates direct competition with first-time buyers.  

Builders are likely to respond by:  

• Designing more age-friendly homes with single-floor layouts and accessibility features.  
• Exploring age-restricted or mixed-use developments that combine independent living with services.  
• Redirecting some resources away from starter homes, which could make entry-level affordability worse.  
• Some seniors will rent their homes to help cover care costs, which typically range from $40,000 to $60,000 a year. The typical cost in skilled nursing facities ranges from $105,600 to $112,800 a year. Meanwhile, growing senior facilities will attract younger healthcare workers, boosting demand for affordable rentals.  

By 2030, Northeast Tennessee will see a demand for assisted living rise by 35–40% compared to today. That wave will bring new housing opportunities and challenges.  

Move-up buyers will probably find more choices as larger homes hit the market.  

First-time buyers may feel squeezed as downsizing seniors compete for the same smaller homes.  

Developers will need to balance the demand for age-friendly design with persistent needs for affordable housing.