Many locals are still buzzing about the new residents, and yes, they’re still coming. 

 The latest census numbers show continued population growth in our region. That’s great news. This region must attract new residents to sustain its population because our death rate is higher than the birth rate. Without them, our population declines. 

The newcomers also provide a fertile source of consumers for the local housing market. But new residents are a convenient scapegoat to blame for the big home price increases. There’s no doubt they accounted for some of it, but not all of it. 

The primary reason we have a housing shortage that drove prices higher is that we didn’t build enough houses to keep supply and demand in balance after the Great Recession. That and the fact that a lot of our demand is organic and our area has experienced stagnant wages that didn’t keep up with home price increases.  

One thing that isn’t getting enough attention is the 10,000+ locals who are waiting on the sidelines. 

That’s right, 10,404 locals, according to research from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), are in the pent-up demand category. These aren’t people who might move here someday. These are folks in our backyard right now. Some are hesitating because they’re waiting for mortgage rates to drop (spoiler alert: that magic number may not come soon). Others are hoping prices will fall. Another spoiler alert: that probably will not happen soon. And a big chunk just can’t find the right house for the right price.  

So, what does that mean for real estate professionals and the local owners who are thinking about getting into the market? It means there’s serious untapped business waiting for the right nudge. NAR’s pent-up demand count may be more or less than when the research was done late last year because the number of potential buyers, like the number of homes on the market, is dynamic and constantly changing.  

Let’s break NAR’s research numbers down: 

🔹 Johnson City Metro 

• 4,807 locals in the demand pool 

• 3,749 are homeowners looking to return to the market 

• 1,058 are renters ready to make the leap 

• Age groups to watch: 

• 35–44: 1,082 

• 55–64: 873 

• 25–34: 665 

Millennials and Gen Xers account for most of this pent-up demand. They’re the ones weighing options but itching to move. 

🔹 Kingsport–Bristol Metro 

• 5,601 total demands 

• 4,369 owners 

• 1,232 renters 

• Age hotspots: 

• 65–74: 1,340 

• 55–64: 1,033 

• 75+: 954 

 Older homeowners are the base of the Model City’s pent-up demand. They’re equity-rich and looking to right-size. 

What does this mean for homeowners looking to get in the market and real estate pros?  

• Stop chasing only new arrivals. They get tons of marketing attention. Meanwhile, there are thousands of locals waiting for a solution to their problem. 

• Refocus the outreach. Get strategic. Target the right product types and neighborhoods for these groups? 

• Focus on solutions. Inventory tight? Help buyers get creative. Coach them on financing options, new construction waitlists, or neighborhoods they haven’t considered yet. 

• Plant the seed now. Many of these buyers will move within 6–18 months. Your follow-up game can make the difference between watching a listing and closing the deal. 

This isn’t theoretical. It’s real. It’s local.  

Don’t let the headlines about who caused the price of housing to outstrip the ability of many locals to buy a home. This isn’t just a growth story. It’s about the local housing market, economy, and culture’s ability to adapt and cope with growth that is and, unless there’s a dramatic change, will continue.